Don't Forget the Census Bureau's Meddling in the Redistricting Wars


The Census Bureau's "mistakes" largely go one way

With all the hue & cry around our redistricting wars, it's surprising to me that this story has largely flown under the radar: back in '22, the Census Bureau conducted something it calls the 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey (or PES), which seems to be a kind of check on the 2020 census. I'm certainly not familiar with the Census Bureau's processes, nor their standards for their work, but they admit to miscounting population in several states by what seems to me to be substantial amounts: they were more than five percent off in Arkansas, Delaware & Rhode Island, and more than six percent off in Hawaii. And, wouldn't you know just know it, there's a clear pattern to their errors: red states were systematically undercounted, and blue over-counted:

versus

It's not perfect, of course, both Ohio and Utah, I think, can fairly be called "red', but still. The American Redistricting Project estimates that "Texas and Florida would each have gained three seats instead of two and one, respectively, while Colorado would not have gained any…", and that "Minnesota and Rhode Island would each have lost a seat." The Heritage Foundation is calling for investigations, but it's hard to imagine Republicans actually doing anything about it.

Still, it's another sign of the lengths to which Democrats (I take government bureaucrats as synonymous with "Democrats") are willing to go as people vote with their feet and move from blue states to red.

05/25/26 17:40


 


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